Moderates Win Tough Seats
The moderate New Democrats have flipped 50 House seats from red to blue since 2018
Takeaways
The moderate New Democrats have flipped 50 House seats from red to blue since 2018.
Center-left DCCC Frontline Democrats, who ran in the most competitive House races in 2024, cumulatively overperformed Kamala Harris by 4.5 percentage points.
28 Frontliners and 26 non-incumbent NewDem candidates overperformed Harris in 2024.
From 2018 to 2024, the more moderate a caucus was, the better their members performed in elections.
Frontliners and NewDems Overperformed Harris in 2024
Center-left DCCC Frontline Democrats, who ran in the most competitive House races in 2024, cumulatively overperformed Kamala Harris by 4.5 percentage points, with 28 Frontliners overperforming Harris in their districts. Leading the way were representatives Pat Ryan (11-point overperformance), Mary Peltola (10.7-point overperformance, but still lost her re-election), and Jared Golden (10.2-point overperformance).
Non-incumbent NewDem candidates ran neck and neck with Harris, with 26 candidates overperforming her in their districts. Leading the way was George Latimer (10-point overperformance), Kristen-McDonald Rivet (8.6-point overperformance), and Christina Bohannan (8.3-point overperformance).
The Moderate New Democrats Have Flipped 50 Seats from Red to Blue Since 2018
Since 2018, the center-left New Democrat Action Fund has flipped 50 seats blue, while far-left organizations such as Our Revolution and Justice Democrats have not flipped a single Republican-held seat blue over the last four cycles.
Moderate New Democrats and Blue Dogs Overperform Progressives, Justice Democrats, and Our Revolution
The centrist New Democrats and Blue Dogs overperformed race fundamentals by 0.5 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents endorsed by Our Revolution and Justice Democrats, two leading left-wing groups, saw margins that were on average five percentage points narrower than fundamentals suggest they ought to have been. – Split Ticket via The Washington Post
From 2018 to 2024, the More Moderate a Congressional Caucus Was, the Better Their Members Overperformed
From 2018 to 2024, the moderate Blue Dogs were the best Democratic caucus in overperformance of expectations, with the moderate NewDems close behind. Blue Dogs did 3.9 points better, on average, from 2018 to 2024, and overperformed progressives by 4.5 points, with NewDems overperforming progressives by one point. – Split Ticket
